The Ebola Pandemic

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Van Canna
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The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Van Canna »

Bill,

What do you make of this article?


http://survivethecomingcollapse.com/400 ... bb3667e911
Van
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Van

That's a very long and mostly very good article.

A few take-home items.

1) Ebola makes a terrible WMD *because* it is so virulent. This won't be the next great world epidemic. The greatest epidemic of all time wasn't the plague, but rather the 1917 variant of H1N1 influenza. That killed 20 to 40 million people worldwide. Ebola tends to kill many in a small area, decimating available hosts until it runs out.

2) Ebola can and does mutate. The concern isn't what Ebola is today, but what it can become if there's enough human-to-human transmission. The primary vector in Africa is a fruit bat - an animal which doesn't exist over here. Many viruses - including influenza - evolve and mutate in animals, and then jump species to humans. The H1N1 epidemic started in a pig farm in Kansas, and spread throughout the world. That special flu virus actually preferentially killed the healthiest people, as it caused a person's immune system to attack the lungs.

3) On the subject of mutation... The article claims there were no cases of airborne Ebola in history. That isn't quite right. There was an Ebola variant being experimented on in Reston, Virginia which evolved to an airborne variety. That variety preferentially infected monkeys, so they were able to scorch the place clean before it could spread. So we know that an airborne Ebola is theoretically possible.

4) AS IT EXISTS TODAY... People aren't contagious until they come down with symptoms. One thing the article got wrong... The vomiting and diarrhea is when the person becomes very contagious. Anything which touches these fluids is potentially a carrier of the virus. A corpse is also highly dangerous. Clothing, bedclothes, and infected dead bodies are to be treated with great care. Only professionals should deal with them.

5) Sperm isn't a great way to spread the illness (today) - unlike what was discussed in the article. Don't expect there to be outbreaks in San Francisco gay bath houses as there was when HIV reared its ugly head.

6) FWIW... The mistake at Presbyterian happened because of a defective Electronic Health Records system. Apparently the doctors (who prescribed the antibiotics to the Liberian man) didn't have access to the nurse's electronic notes, so didn't know he traveled from Liberia. Yes, this is a major screw-up. That man was allowed to go home from the ER, where he potentially spread the virus to family members. The bleaching of the parking lot - as reported in the article - was stupid. The danger inside the apartment with a man vomiting and having diarrhea was very real. Because of bad software - mandated by Obamacare - a whole family may have been infected. This is a major opportunity for positive change in our health care system.

And finally...

Both experimental vaccines and experimental treatments are being worked on. Science however has a lot of work to do before we can arm our population with offensive tools to fight these outbreaks.

Meanwhile... First thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers. (Apologies to William Shakespeare.) We cannot be producing *fast* cures and feeding the ambulance chasers at the same time. As I have posted elsewhere, risk happens. Want guarantees? Come back in another life. Want a cure? Then get the bottom feeders out of the way, and let science do its thing. Mistakes will be made along the way before we get the proper vaccines and treatments. This should be fast-tracked, and those on the front lines need to be protected by society as a whole. Are you a trial lawyer and offended by what I write here? Kiss my ***. My job is to save lives.

- Bill
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Van Canna
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Van Canna »

Pretty scary stuff, Bill, anyway we look at this.

In the meantime ...is there anything people can do to minimize risk of infection, without falling in the grip of paranoia?
Van
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Van Canna wrote: In the meantime ...is there anything people can do to minimize risk of infection, without falling in the grip of paranoia?
My first thought was... practically speaking, no. But then I thought a little more about it, and realized there might be a few things we could do "on the margins" which might make a difference.
  • Stay as healthy as possible. This means eat right, exercise, and get proper rest. You want the best immune system possible should you get exposed.
    ..
  • The one supplement that probably would make a difference is vitamin D3. This is a bit of a miracle nutrient for boosting the immune system. Older people should see their physician and ask to get tested to see whether or not their levels are low - which they often are. Anyone would probably do well to have a daily supplement of this vitamin. Just don't overdo it!
    ..
  • Practice standard precautions - as you would during cold and flu season. Wash your hands. Stay away from sick people. Keep your hands away from your face. Consider humidifying your heated home during winter when the dew point drops. Dry air in confined spaces with other people is a recipe for disease transmission.
    ..
  • GET A FLU SHOT!! This should be done every single year, between the beginning of August to a few weeks before Thanksgiving when flu season starts in earnest. Early symptoms of Ebola mimic flu. If you reduce your risk of flu, then you're less likely to be going into a doctor's office where you sit around other sick people (for myriad reasons) and get sick from them. I'm about to submit an abstract to a professional society to show why it's a very bad idea to go into a doctor's office for *any* reason after New Years for routine wellness care. The elderly in particular are more likely to get sick and die due to being exposed to "Typhoid Mary" who is there to get sickness care.

    Also make sure you've gotten your pneumonia vaccination if you're over the age of 65. The latest recommendations are to get a 23-valent vaccination first, and the 13-valent one a few years later. Pneumonia kills - often subsequent to some other illness.
    ..
  • Do anything you can to support science and math education in this country. We're falling behind compared to the rest of the industrial world, and we need smart doctors and scientists to help keep us well. We also need fewer stupid lay people so we don't get the idiotic mass panic syndromes.

    And if panic ensues, well... be well armed! :twisted:
    ..
  • IF this breaks out big-time in any area, the place you're most likely to catch it is from another family member at home. So make sure you have extra supplies at home (of all kinds) and reduce your family's need to go in and out a lot when/if things go very bad.

    And let the professionals handle all vomit, diarrhea, blood, bedclothing, and corpses.
Hope that helps!

- Bill
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Van Canna
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Van Canna »

Good points Bill.
I'm about to submit an abstract to a professional society to show why it's a very bad idea to go into a doctor's office for *any* reason after New Years for routine wellness care. The elderly in particular are more likely to get sick and die due to being exposed to "Typhoid Mary" who is there to get sickness care.
So what are the best months to be seen by a Dr. for routine care?

I don't feel quite right when going to my doctor's office and having to touch door knobs and other items, magazines, pens, forms etc.

Also when a doctor/nurses touch you...

Often I think I should be wearing a pair of surgical gloves in and out of there... but I fear to be branded as a paranoid patient.
Van
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Bill Glasheen »

The *worst* months to go to a doctor's office for routine (wellness) care are January through March, +/- depending on the year. The best months are probably during the summer, when you're surrounded by people there for accidents, poison ivy, STDs, etc.

You have reason to be fearful, and there's no excuse on the part of your doctors. My future publication will be proposing to make changes in how doctor's offices are designed.

- Bill
jorvik
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by jorvik »

Didn't we discuss ebola on this forum some years ago? There was a book called the "hot zone" all about ebola.
In the book , ebola sounds a lot more horrific than what we are being told. The victims die from a bleed out when blood pores from every orifice. The symptoms are not described as flu like.
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Bill Glasheen »

jorvik wrote:Didn't we discuss ebola on this forum some years ago? There was a book called the "hot zone" all about ebola.
In the book , ebola sounds a lot more horrific than what we are being told. The victims die from a bleed out when blood pores from every orifice. The symptoms are not described as flu like.
I read Preston's book two decades ago.

... The Hot Zone

Ebola *starts* with flu-like symptoms - hence the concern with a differential diagnosis. The hemorrhaging only begins before death. If it began immediately, then the docs in the ER at Texas Presbyterian wouldn't have let the patient go home. Blood coming out the nose does kind of get your attention.

Here's a link which describes the range of symptoms. As with ALL diseases, not all symptoms start at the same time.

... CDC -- Ebola Virus, Signs and Symptoms

Also... not all Ebola is created equal. The virus mutates.

- Bill
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Van Canna
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Van Canna »

So, Bill...Ebola becomes contagious only after symptoms manifest?

I train over the Elliptical machine for thirty minutes three times a week plus the weight machines circuit where I have to seat, lie down, etc...then I grab some dumbells...

Most people do spray and wipe...but you sometimes wonder if it is enough to avoid any kind of contamination.
Van
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Bill Glasheen
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Bill Glasheen »

Yes, Van, it only becomes contagious (practically speaking) when you are symptomatic. More importantly, it's only highly contagious when the person is *very* sick with vomiting and diarrhea.

The most recent case of a U.S. reporter getting sick happened when he helped a taxi driver clean the cab that transported a woman who died of Ebola. The fellow in Texas Presbyterian helped transport a woman with Ebola who was refused at a hospital and subsequently died. These are very, very sick people.

They won't be on the treadmills; they'll be kneeling before or sitting on the throne. ;-)

The worst place to be is in the home caring for someone who gets very sick with it. Another bad place is a health care facility without A/C or standard isolation capabilities. Yet another is the people who have to transport and dispose of the dead bodies as well as their bed clothing and other biological waste.

Go to the gym, my friend. The upside is >> the down side. But only after you've gotten your pneumonia vaccination and your seasonal flu shot. :-)

Oh... and stay away from public toilets if you can. For now...

- Bill
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Van Canna
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Re: The Ebola Pandemic

Post by Van Canna »

Thanks, Bill.
Van
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