The trend just keeps changing...

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:21 pm

These are nice. Thanks.

I don't trust the LA Times though. Like the Washington Post and even more so the New York Times, their agendas are pretty transparent and seem to affect how they report news and collect data. You could also argue the same about Fox News.

These look a lot like the Zogby interactive ones I've seen before.

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:57 pm

More of the same...

Read the details of these polls, and they tell you something interesting. Fifty-one percent say it's time for a change. However while Kerry intrigues them, he doesn't seem to be able to "close the deal." (quote taken from an interview of the Zogby firm). There's still a hard core seven percent that remains "undecided."

IMO, the fickle portion of the public has spoken. "NONE OF THE ABOVE" is their vote. On November 2nd, they will pick their lesser evil.

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:54 pm

The more things change, the more they remain the same.

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Thu Oct 21, 2004 11:37 pm

This difference is within the statistical margin of error, so we cannot say it is real.

However Zogby has some very, very fascinating comments.

Pollster John Zogby: “As we’ve said all along, 2004 is playing out as close as 2000. For your viewing pleasure we thought we would give you the tracking poll for a comparable period in 2000. We will repeat this as we go along.”

See more here.

Political feelings put aside and geek hat put on - This is way cool!

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:07 pm

Pollster John Zogby: “President Bush picked up another point today, but 48% has been the ceiling reached by either candidate in the last couple of weeks. I will obviously watch in the next couple of days to see if the president can break through. What’s of special interest today is that the candidates are pretty much tied among several key groups: Independents, Catholics, women, and military families. While Kerry leads by double-digits among 18-24 year olds, the President leads by double-digits among 25-34 year olds. It will be important for the President to keep making inroads among younger voters. Right now the candidates are nearly tied among voters over 65—another ominous sign for Kerry.

- Zogby International

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:50 pm

I keep coming to Zogby for several reasons

1) His sample sizes are larger than the other polls, giving him a smaller margin of error and thus a lower likelihood that a reported difference is due to chance (random sampling error).

2) His sampling techniques (which includes corrections for demographics) are better than most.

3) He has been spot on in previous elections - particularly the 1996. His 2000 polls, which he's now posting along with the daily 2004 results, point to the final election day outcome. In that election, Gore barely won the popular vote, and Bush won the electoral college vote.

4) Zogby reports a 3-previous-day-average result, thus damping responses to single day events.

Pollster John Zogby: "Bush had a stronger single day of polling, leading Kerry 49% to 46%. For the first time, in the one-day sample Bush had a positive re-elect, 49% to the 48% who feel it's time for someone new. Also in the one-day sample, Undecideds were only 4%. Could Undecideds be breaking for Bush?

- Zogby International

Again, each of these bars represents a 3 day average. He's pointing to the outcome of the most recent day (Oct 22nd in the 20th through 22nd average which is reported as Oct 23rd). That may be real, or it may just be statistical noise. We can't know for sure until Sunday or Monday.

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Sun Oct 24, 2004 3:44 pm

I think the most interesting trend I see now is "undecideds" dropping fairly dramatically. And not all of them are going for the traditional two parties.

Pollster John Zogby: “Another good single day of polling for President Bush. In today’s sample alone, he leads 50% to 43%—the first time we’ve seen either candidate hit 50%. Each candidate continues to tighten his own constituency, and Undecided voters are now at only 4%

But...the difference in the bar chart above still isn't (yet) statistically significant.

Check out the distribution of votes not Republican or Democrat. Compare that to year 2000. Veeedy intedesting...

Zogby Poll Details

Also worth noting...

"We know from the history of presidential elections that when a president is polling below 50 percent going into the election, he usually loses," says Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist. "That is true of incumbent office-holders in general. The incumbent usually ends up getting the percentage that he is getting in the final polls -- that's it."

- Ronald Brownstein, The Charlotte Observer

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:29 pm

The race is far from over, particularly when you look at the race from the standpoint of electoral college votes. However for the first time in a very long time, Bush's lead in the national poll is statistically significant.

From John Zogby

The President has opened up a 12-point lead among Independents and now also leads among those voters with active passports. While each candidate is polling solidly among most of his base constituency, Kerry should be concerned that his numbers among Hispanics appear to be anemic. We are finding the same in states like New Mexico, but we are currently engaged in a large national poll of Hispanics—and will be able to tell shortly if the findings in this tracking poll correspond to a sample of 1000 Hispanic voters.

Lots of interesting detail here, and a similar "bump" that occurred at the same time (for Bush) in year 2000.

And remember that in year 2000, Bush was ahead until the Democratic "October surprise" where they released records to the press of a Bush DUI when he was a young lad. Do not be surprised if we see similar stuff from either side in the next week.

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Tue Oct 26, 2004 2:48 pm

This is the first day where Zogby has factored "leaners" into the final results. With Bush being so close to 50%, the goal was to test the conventional wisdom that undecideds vote against the incumbent on election day. Here is what John Zogby reports.

Our first night with Leaners brings President Bush to 49% against Senator Kerry’s 46%. If Kerry, as suggested, is looking to Undecideds—look again there may not be enough left.

Add the following to that picture.

* Ralph Nader's support has grown to 1.1%.

* Michael Badnarik's support (the libertarian party candidate) has dropped from about 1.0% to less than 0.1%.

* The "cell phone" likely voters remain a question mark. If they are largely 18 to 24, they are substantially for Kerry. If instead they are largely 25 to 29, they are substantially for Bush.

* There is a significant number of newly registered voters - particularly in the swing states. One county in Ohio now has more registered voters than they do elligible voters (by about 10,000).

* Several questionable news stories have popped up in the papers in the last week. Watch very closely how the candidates deal with information and misinformation in the home stretch. How does it make each of them look?

* STAR POWER! We have Clinton, and The Governator, and Julianni, and...and...

* A number of electoral college vote scenarios exist, including a 269 to 269 tie. That would throw the vote into the Republican-controlled House.

- Bill

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:29 pm

It appears that Kerry may have gotten a big one-day bounce from echoing a New York Times anti-Bush story about "missing explosives." Is this the "October surprise" we all expected?

In any case, the race has turned back to a statistical dead heat on 4 different fronts.

* Statistically tied in the national poll.

* Statistically tied in Ohio.

* Statistically tied in Pennsylvania

* Statistically tied in Florida.

As Dicke V would say...

That's the election right there, baby!

Some key references

Zogby

Tied in the big three

Electoral College Scenarios

- Bill

Paul_C · Post by **Paul_C** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:35 pm

The missing explosives definitely don’t help Bush. In some peoples mind it just solidifies the accusation of Bush paying more attention to protecting the oil pipelines and the oil ministry then securing military targets. Whether that’s true or not doesn’t matter it's how it's perceived. And at this late stage perception is everything.

Panther · Post by **Panther** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 10:13 pm

Something's definitely off with this story. NBC reported that the weapons (380 tons of them) were missing based on what an embedded reporter NOW says, but other sources (the Pentagon) have indicated that we either have or are in the process of destroying 400 tons of weapons... Doesn't make sense.

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 1:45 am

True, but we can't let the facts get in the way of an effective political strategy. That wouldn't be very sporting.

It's the last week, gentlemen. Frankly I was expecting something more than that.

- Bill

Panther · Post by **Panther** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 4:47 am

Want more?

Here you go... This should get the communists upset...

http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.a ... E_ID=41106

Discovered papers: Hanoi directed Kerry
Recovered Vietnam documents 'smoking gun' researchers claim

But it isn't an issue... right?

Bill Glasheen · Post by **Bill Glasheen** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 1:02 pm

Of course not, Panther. It isn't worthy of an article for a paper which publishes all the news that's fit to print.

We have higher standards, sir. All the news that fits, we print!

- Bill