Katrina - what the hell went wrong???

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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

From today's WSJ.

- Bill
Hurricane Force
Anatomy of a Flood: 3 Deadly Waves


Canal, 2 Lakes Swamped
Eastern New Orleans
As Storm Tore Through
Mr. Mullet's Fight to Survive

By JEFF D. OPDYKE, EVAN PEREZ and ANN CARRNS
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

September 7, 2005; Page A1

NEW ORLEANS -- On Aug. 29, as Hurricane Katrina brought chaos to this city, three massive waves of water poured largely unseen into the eastern section of town and neighboring St. Bernard Parish.

One surged west, off a churning Lake Borgne. Another came across from Lake Pontchartrain in the north. That sent a steel barge ramming through the Industrial Canal, a major shipping artery that cuts north to south through the city, possibly scything a breach that became 500 feet long, letting waters pour into nearby neighborhoods.

The waves inundated the mostly working-class eastern districts, home to 160,000 people. In some places, the water rose as fast as a foot per minute, survivors say.

Until now, the world's attention has focused on the levee system protecting the city's central districts, and on the near-anarchy in the storm's aftermath. But a complete reckoning of the damage and death toll will likely focus on an entirely different event, hitherto overlooked: the devastating swamping of the eastern sections of New Orleans, hours before the central flooding began. The final tallying of the dead across the city will be substantially dictated by how many residents of these neighborhoods got out alive.

For auto mechanic Roy Mullet, who lived on Meraux Lane, where the streets fade into the marshes stretching toward Lake Borgne, the flood kicked off a furious and lonely fight to survive. His struggle, and that of his extended family and neighbors, was capped by an unexpected and critical act of charity.

Image

For the rest of the city, and the investigators piecing together the puzzle, the floods in eastern New Orleans suggest a more complicated explanation for the disaster, one that raises new questions about how it was devastated and what must be done to make it secure. In particular: Why were the levees lining the Industrial Canal and parts of Lake Pontchartrain to the east lower than in other parts of the city? Should residents near Lake Borgne have been more clearly warned that the lake could rise so furiously? Are the levees outside the city limits sufficient to protect parts of the city that few tourists ever visit? Should shipping companies be required to do a better job of securing barges and vessels?

Only 83 deaths have been confirmed in Louisiana, but the death toll will clearly be higher. "It's going to be awful, and it's going to wake the nation up again," New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said yesterday. Katrina is blamed for a total of nearly 260 deaths in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi. The number unaccounted for is huge. As of yesterday, more than 23,000 messages had been posted on a "missing persons" Web site sponsored by the New Orleans Times-Picayune newspaper.

According to engineers, scientists, local officials and the accounts of nearly 90 survivors of Katrina interviewed in recent days, the first of the three waves swept from the north out of Lake Pontchartrain. How high the wave reached hasn't been determined, but the surge poured over 15-foot high levees along the Industrial Canal, which were several feet lower than others in the central areas of the city.

About the same time, a similar wave exploded without warning across Lake Borgne, which separates Lake Pontchartrain from the Gulf of Mexico. It filled the lake, engulfed its surrounding marshes, raced over levees and poured into eastern New Orleans.

As Lake Borgne swallowed those neighborhoods from the east, a separate catastrophic wave rose from the other side, possibly caused by the flying barge.

Trapped between three cascades of water were the neighborhoods of the Lower Ninth Ward, where nearly 14,000 African-Americans lived, a third of whom owned no vehicle and a third of whom had physical disabilities, according to U.S. Census data. Next door, just outside the city limits, were the virtually all-white areas of St. Bernard Parish -- Arabi, Chalmette and Meraux -- home to more than 50,000 people as well as oil refineries, docks and a fishing boat in what seemed like every other yard. Within a few hours of Katrina's arrival, those areas sat under as much as 15 feet of water, according to witnesses.

To the north, water poured through black and Vietnamese neighborhoods closer to Lake Pontchartrain, where another 96,000 people lived. Like Mr. Mullet and his family, large numbers of people in these areas had not evacuated.

Some families didn't think it was necessary to heed an order from Mayor Nagin to leave before Katrina arrived. Many others, particularly older people or the poorest residents without transportation or cash for hotels, say they couldn't comply. Other residents here adamantly refused to take shelter in the Louisiana Superdome, where crowds had become unruly during previous hurricanes.

"There was going to be thousands of people in there, and I knew that was going to be a problem," said Ernest DeJean, a 52-year-old carpenter who hunkered down in his brother's house on the western side of the Industrial Canal. They locked the wooden shutters tight and filled the bathtub and bathroom sink with water for drinking.

{snip}
Gene DeMambro
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Post by Gene DeMambro »

Here's an article from The Boston Globe recently about the revenue situation and earlier calls to revamp protections:

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washi ... na_on_aid/
Texas has done a really good job of using its own
oil revenue (after taxes)
But they get more money than does LA. From the above article:
Under federal law, some states get to keep half of the royalties from onshore drilling done within their borders; a quirk in the law allows Texas to get royalties for drilling up to 10 miles off its coast, Jindal said, but Louisiana cannot get royalties from offshore drilling even a few miles from its coast. Instead, the federal government keeps the royalties, he said.
Texas gets royalties from 10 miles out, but LA gets nothing.
They sure have. Build a city in the bull’s-eye of hurricane alley, and what do
you expect? Build levees and cause shrink-swell earth to sink well below
sea level, and what do you expect?
Everyone expected this. New Orleans was founded in 1718, and has rich history. I don't think anyone ever thought of abandoning the city, raizing it's history and letting the Mississippi reclaim it. Maybe they should have, as it's probably one of the worst places on the continent to put a city.

Maybe Richmond didn't get Fed money for it's flood control system. And MA didn't get any Federal money when the Central Artery was first built. But Wilkes-Barre, PA got loads for their flood control system, and Boston got loads for the Big Dig. ANd every state is getting it's share of Federal money for hihgways, byways, seaways etc.

But we aren't talking about restoring a mile long strip of beach so an endangered species of sea turtle can lay her eggs. We're talking about a major avenue for commerce, energy and a driver of the economy. And those are all Federal concerns.

Gene
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

All true, and good points.

But this is bigger than fixing New Orleans back to the way it was. If there's one thing abundantly clear here, it's that perhaps it's time to wipe the slate clean and think of Plan B. It's too large an area below sea level not to expect a tragedy like this at least once every hundred years. And with warmer Gulf waters, we can expect more and more such storms. We can't afford to lose lives like this, and we can't afford to be fixing something that doesn't make sense in the first place.

This is a tremendous opportunity. With so many lives lost, hard questions need to be asked. If you want to level the playing field on royalties for oil drilling, so be it. But to what end? And oil revenue won't be forever. In 200 years, it won't exist. We don't, for example, have to build the next port city below sea level.

There are many such cities in history that have had changes in fortune. One that comes to mind is Regensburg in Germany, where we have a Uechi club (some of my grandkids and great grandkids... :)). It needed to redefine itself multiple times as fortunes came and went. Many cities in Japan have had to do the same through both natural (earthquake) and man-made (nuclear explosions) tragedies. San Francisco and Chicago had their own disasters with tremendous human toll, as did the Arkies and Okies in the early 20th century. The didn't come back exactly the same way, and probably for the better.

What will Baghdad, Tehran or Mecca be in 300 years?

What of Pompei?

What of the next natural disaster? Will we be able to know exactly where we should spend each and every precious dollar that 100 people want and 99 will not get? And do you honestly think our government as it exists is going to dole Federal dollars out in ways that make perfect logical sense? It can't happen, and we shouldn't flog ourselves for it. And those dollars, after all, are part of a mass redistribution of wealth. There will be winners and losers in the game, unless you just tell everyone they can keep their money. That isn't going to happen.

I keep coming back to Richmond - a city I only recently moved to. It was once capital of The Confederacy, and Virginia was once one of the largest states. It once was at the mouth of an intracontinental canal system. Then The Union Army burned Richmond to the ground, and the modern railroad made the canals irrelevant. Then it was a major banking capital, until there were mergers and acquisitions, and Charlotte, NC was the big winner. It has had to redefine itself repeatedly.

The best thing we can do for New Orleans IMO is not to give them what they asked for. Give them what they need. And that will take time to define, but at least we have everyone's attention. Death has a way of doing that. It's a shame, but let's not squander the opportunity.

Bill
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Mary S
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Post by Mary S »

Two things:

Is Michael Brown going to become the scapegoat for political incompetence?

Why was Cuba's offer of assistance rejected?
jorvik

Post by jorvik »

I wonder if anyone will connect this with Global warming and oil .the Tokyo accord and all that? maybe it's time to re-think about all thoses SUVS
folks have been talking about this for some time, saying that the weather would get worse.guess it has.
The other thing that I really don't get is how the US can get a schittload of aid to africa in a day or two........and yet can't get stuff in that quickly to one of her own states.
don't really get the looting thing? .either.....what was that all about? :?
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Or H.A.A.R.P
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

Mary wrote: Is Michael Brown going to become the scapegoat for political incompetence?
The press already is crucifying him. Everyone loves a scapegoat when things go bad.

He's been sent back to DC to get back in charge of the larger agency that needs to be prepared for the next potential disaster (like Ophelia or an anniversary 9/11 attack). Meanwhile, the recovery effort is officially in "Stage II" under Coast Guard Vice Adm. Thad W. Allen, who was overseeing New Orleans relief and rescue efforts.
Mary wrote: Why was Cuba's offer of assistance rejected?
The most fungible aid asset is dollars. They don't need any people unconnected to the coordinated efforts (other than licensed MDs, nurses, etc.), boxes of clothing, boxes of food, etc. The cheapest, fastest, and most efficient thing to do is get cash and buy what is needed locally.

Believe it or not, Afghanistan offered around $100K, and it was gratefully received.
jorvik wrote: I wonder if anyone will connect this with Global warming and oil .the Tokyo accord and all that?
Robert Kennedy Jr. has chosen the event very early on to say "I told you so." Right now, not many people find that kind of talk helpful. It seems in poor taste when people needed to be rescued.
jorvik wrote: maybe it's time to re-think about all thoses SUVS
folks have been talking about this for some time, saying that the weather would get worse.guess it has.

The best way to make the suburban assault vehicles go away is to let the price of gas go up. It's a wonderful cure. Downsizing was the fashion du jour in the 1970s when the inflation-adjusted price of gas was much higher than it is today.

It'll just be a matter of time.

As for the weather, well the environmental alarmists are going to have to get their message straight. Last summer, Hollywood told us it was going to be a new ice age. (The Day After Tomorrow) Go figure...
jorvik wrote: The other thing that I really don't get is how the US can get a schittload of aid to africa in a day or two........and yet can't get stuff in that quickly to one of her own states.

A couple of things here.

First, the most important thing to do was not to get aid to New Orleans, but to get the people the hell out of there. But there was a governor and a mayor in charge, and their decision-making left a bit to be desired. It took a while for them to see the light.

Second, this is the largest natural disaster ever in the history of this country. A little bit of chaos is understandable. Putting up with CNN in your face when people are dieing is a bit much...
jorvik wrote: don't really get the looting thing? .either.....what was that all about?
It's what the freeloaders do when there is a power vacuum. There's a long history of that kind of activity in this country. The TV people know where and when to put the cameras up. They go for the emotional hijacking of the audience, and succeed handsomely.

I don't have a problem with the poor looting the Wal-Mart for food and diapers. This is to be expected when humans need to fight for their lives. I'm disturbed when they loot the gun department, but can understand. But I do have a problem with them breaking into electronics stores when there is no power, or jewelry stores when lives are at stake.

- Bill
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Mary S
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Post by Mary S »

Bill, not sure I agree with you totally on the Cuba thing:


Doctors Urge U.S. to Accept Cuba's Offer of 1586 Disaster-Trained Doctors to Stop Katrina Epidemics

ATLANTA, Sept. 7 /PRNewswire/ -- A prominent U.S. medical group voiced "deep concern" over delays in health care and epidemic prevention reaching Katrina victims, and urged U.S. authorities to accept Cuba's offer of 1586 disaster-trained physicians to prevent a "second wave of sickness and death."

Latest reports indicate the U.S. State Department is backing away from the offer, implying they are not needed.

"Up to this point, there been a clear need for more medical help for Katrina victims," said Peter Bourne, MD, Chairman of MEDICC and former special adviser on health in the Carter White House and former Assistant Secretary General at the United Nations. "The Cuban physicians are accustomed to working in difficult third-world conditions without the resources and supplies most of us are accustomed to. Since they are just an hour away, it is a shame that they have not been allowed to join our committed medical corps already."

He is joined by other physicians, medical educators, international health experts and a former U.S. surgeon general associated with MEDICC, Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba. From 1998 through 2004, MEDICC has provided medical electives in Cuba for nearly 1000 students and faculty from 118 U.S. medical, public health and nursing schools.

"Cuba has been recognized by the UN, Oxfam and other international organizations as a leader in disaster response, expertise that could be saving lives now," said Doctor William Keck, former long-time director of the Akron, Ohio Department of Public Health.

A 2004 Oxfam Report, Weathering the Storm: Lessons in Risk Reduction from Cuba, states that there are real lessons to be learned from Cuba on how to safeguard lives during extreme natural disasters, including getting medical attention to vulnerable populations. The report can be found at http://www.oxfamamerica.org/cuba.

On Tuesday, August 30, Cuba first offered U.S. authorities hurricane relief in the form of 1100 disaster-trained bilingual physicians, each equipped with 52-pound pound backpacks of medical supplies, including rehydration therapy, insulin, anti-hypertensives, and medications for systemic and topical infections.

On Saturday, September 3, Cuba increased the offer to 1586 doctors, ready for immediate deployment and prepared to stay as long as necessary to help wherever needed. A Cuban spokesperson said that as of today there has been no official response from the U.S. government.

Cuban disaster relief experience spans 45 years, mainly in hurricanes faced by the Caribbean island and in coping with disasters confronted by other developing countries. Another nearly 25,000 Cuban health professionals provide longer-term health care services in 68 countries, under government-to- government agreements.

Cuba trains 10,500 medical students from 27 countries at its Latin American Medical School -- 65 of them from poor and minority communities in the USA. (See The New England Journal of Medicine, 2004; 351:2680-82.)

"What an irony that the first U.S. MD to graduate from the school this August is a young African American from New Orleans," said Diane Appelbaum, RN, NP, MS. "He just passed the U.S. medical boards and is eager to fulfill the commitment he made in exchange for his free education from Cuba to serve the very poverty-stricken areas now devastated."

For additional first-hand reports and interviews from Cuba, please see MEDICC's on-line journal, MEDICC Review at http://www.medicc.org , Archives, Vol VI, No. 3, 2004 Disaster Management in Cuba: Reducing the Risk.

MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba) is a non-profit organization based in Atlanta. MEDICC is committed to maintaining institutional and educational links between the U.S. and Cuban medical communities. MEDICC publishes the English-language journal MEDICC Review, reporting on Cuba's medical and public health programs, available at http://www.medicc.org.

CONTACT: Diane Appelbaum, RN, NP, MS
US Director, MEDICC
(678) 904-8090 http://www.medicc.org
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Post by Guest »

Bill Glasheen wrote:[The best way to make the suburban assault vehicles go away is to let the price of gas go up. It's a wonderful cure. Downsizing was the fashion du jour in the 1970s when the inflation-adjusted price of gas was much higher than it is today.
I'm ready to trade my truck in on a 2006 Pinto, Gremlin, Vega, or Maverick!
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Mary S wrote:Bill, not sure I agree with you totally on the Cuba thing:
Mary,

Cuba is a communist nation. The USA cannot risk an Agent melting into the population and creating havoc.

Fidel could just just as easily send money and cigars....
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

It's political, Mary. Remember that every group - including physicians - has its political diversity. Physicians range from hardcore consevatives and libertarians to those who would prefer everything be government run, or we be part of a greater UN community. The story you cited is largely created by Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba. They have their agenda.

Tony is right; cash is best. Specific services are being purchased as needed, such as freeze-drying methods from Switzerland to handle vital birth, death, and marriage certificates floating around in water.

And in case anyone hasn't noticed, the immediate crisis is over. Many of the refugees are out of the area and scattered across the country. By the time the Cubans got here, it would have been too late.

- Bill
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Dana Sheets
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Post by Dana Sheets »

the immediate crisis is over
Huh? I disagree. There are still many many miles of people with no water, no electricity, no medication, little food, who are not receiving updates on where to go or how to get help. Many of the smaller cities on the coastline are still isolated.

There is still crisis-a-plenty in my opinion.
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There are still doggies trapped in houses crying for someone to let them out.
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Mary S
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Post by Mary S »

I agree with you Dana...
By the time the Cubans got here, it would have been too late.

By that reasoning by the time the Canadians get there (3 navy ships and a coast guard vessel left Halifax Wednesday and have been slowed down by Ophelia) it will be too late as well.
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Bill Glasheen
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Post by Bill Glasheen »

This is a curious comment. I'm listening to the news talking about New Orleans debating whether or not to force people out who refuse to leave. If someone doesn't want to leave, that's their prerogative - and assumed risk.

It'll take about 5 years to get back to normal. That would be about half the time it took for recovery from the Kobe earthquakes.

Mississippi has announced that power would be completely restored to all areas where it could be received by the end of this week. It'll take a while to re-build the neighborhoods.

Having people stay in condemned housing is a tricky issue. But what are you going to do if someone doesn't want to leave? Bringing more food and medical aid to them is perpetuating the problem. Already they intentionally have stopped giving food aid in New Orleans to flush the stragglers out.

The worst-hit areas need to be bulldozed and re-built without people getting in the way. And they need to get people out and away from the toxic brew of water and waste so the professionals can start cleaning up.

- Bill
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